Publicado el 07-20-2012
Repercussions of the
Situation in Syria
In many countries of the Near and Middle East as well as in Europe and the United States there is concern about the repercussions that the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria might have.
The rebels seem to be gaining ground and there is fighting in the streets of Damascus. A bomb attack this week killed several important collaborators of President Assad and it seems that he has left the capital for a safer place.
Iranians are concerned because Syria has long been a client state of Iran and if the Assad government were to fall this would be a serious blow for Iran because it would lose its opening to the Mediterranean. There is also a religious aspect involved. The fall of Assad and of his Alawite government, which is a branch of Shiite Islam, would give Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states the possibility of countering the influence of Shiite Iran in the region, and prevent that it continues to help the revolutionaries in the Middle East. Already Palestinian group Hamas that has always depended on Syria and Iran, has said hat is supports the revolutionaries that want to overthrow Assad.
Iran and Syria’s last revolutionary ally, the Hezbollah party that rules in Lebanon would lose its main sources of weapons and financial aid. This could cause a civil war in Lebanon. Nassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, said this Wednesday on television that they would not abandon Assad. During this TV appearance he credited Hezbollah’s victory against Israel in the 2006 Lebanon to the missiles and weapons that Syria had given them.
On the other hand, diplomatic efforts to get a vote in the U.N. Security Council to impose economic sanctions on Syria for not implementing a peace plan, failed on Thursday when Russia and China vetoed the resolution sponsored by Great Britain. This is the third time that Russia and China have vetoed resolutions on Syria. This leaves in doubt the future of the United Nations mission sent to Syrian to monitor the peace plan negotiated by Kofi Annan, the special envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League. The authorization of the Security Council to the mission expires this Friday, but Great Britain and Pakistan are preparing resolutions to extend it.
The next days will be crucial for Syria and for the Near and Middle East as well.